Cueball is standing at a watercooler, when Beret Buy approaches.
Beret Guy: Are you ready for Sunday? Can you believe it is the big game already?
Cueball: Yup.
Beret Guy: Any big plans?
Cueball: My brother has people over. I'm not that interested, but free pizza.
Beret Guy: I get it.
Cueball (cautiously): Who are you rooting for?
Beret Guy: Normally I'm team Phil. But with all the warm weather this year, I'll probably go team Shadow.
Cueball (confused): What?
Beret Guy (defensive): What?
Title text: Odds makers heavily favor the groundhog, due in part to global warming.
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space for explain the joke/spoilers
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no really
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Explain not quite XKCD
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Feb 2nd, 2020 is Super Bowl LIV (54) between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The game is a major TV event, watched even by those who do not follow the NFL; this can be for the spectacle of the game and its half-time show, for the extravagant commercial advertisements, or to be able to talk about it the next day, or just to go to a party.
Feb 2nd (every year) is Groundhog Day, a minor US holiday in which a groundhog (Punxsutawney Phil being the primary prognosticator) is said to be able to predict the end of winter and beginning for spring based on whether or not he sees his shadow.
Most people would not consider Groundhog Day to be more notable than the Super Bowl [citation needed], nor would they consider it a contest between Phil and his Shadow. Beret Guy is not most people.
The title text references both the common practice of sports betting, where the odds of a given team winning (set by odds makers) determining the payout for a success bet on that team, and the impact on global warming on weather patterns.
Author's Note: I can't draw, no not even to the level of stick figures (especially ones in berets or water coolers). And I wouldn't want to step on Randall's toes if I could. Still, I had this idea and just had to put it down in some way.